The New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders might highlight a Week 9 afternoon slate of lackluster games, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t value to be found in Vegas this weekend with the home side sitting as a 1.5-point favorite with a falling total.
With Daniel Jones getting back under center after some poor QB play in his absence, is it time to buy some shares of the New York pass catchers who could see lots of time on the field with Darren Waller out?
I break down the NFL odds and offer my free NFL picks for Giants vs. Raiders on November 5.
Giants vs Raiders odds
Giants vs Raiders predictions
The New York Giants finished with -9 net passing yards last week vs. the Jets and still almost won. The QB carousel turns back to Daniel Jones this week as the starter has been out since Week 5. It’s an upgrade for the entire New York passing game for Sunday’s indoor setting.
Tight end Darren Waller has been ruled out meaning his 22% target share will be going elsewhere. Considering how awful the passing game has been of late, the Giants still ran 3-WR sets at 83% last week so it’s safe to assume Darius Slayton and Wan’Dale Robinson will see plenty of snaps and routes.
Robinson seemed to overtake the No.2 WR job last week playing a season-high 83% snap share with a matching 83% route share. He is still running roughly 80% of his routes from the slot but New York is running a lot of single-TE sets, keeping the second-year receiver on the field.
In the three games he’s played with Daniel Jones, Robinson led all New York WRs in target share at 18% and turned those 17 targets into a team-high 14 catches. His aDOT of 3.5 yards on the season is about as low as you can get, but because of those short routes, he has a high catch rate of 82.1% and looks like a great bet to top his reception total of 3.5.
THE BLITZ is projecting 4.99 receptions and nearly 50 yards receiving making both his Over 3.5 catches at -120 and his Over 32.5 receiving yards solid +EV plays. If the Over 3.5 receptions moves to -160 which it might as at the time of writing Pinnacle is at -162, the move to the Over receiving yards might be the preferred move.
It could be a big volume game for the receiver who has been limited at practice this week but has been almost all year since returning from a knee injury in Week 3. He has topped this number in each of his three games with Daniel Jones.
My best bet: Wan’Dale Robinson Over 3.5 receptions (-120 at BetMGM)Picks made at time of writing may not reflect live odds.
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Giants vs Raiders same-game parlay
Giants moneylineRobinson 50+ receiving yardsBarkley Over 76.5 rushing yards50% boost available
+800 +1,200 at bet365
The Giants enter this game with the better quarterback while the defense has looked good for three straight weeks. THE BLITZ is projecting Robinson for 49 yards, making his Milestone of 50-plus yards a solid +EV play that could be bet solo as well. Barkley is the betting favorite to lead the week in rushing, making a 76.5-yard total an easy Over here as the Raiders got gouged on the ground last week by the Lions.
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Giants vs Raiders spread and Over/Under analysis
A lot has happened with this spread since last Sunday but let’s try and break it down.
The Raiders were sitting at -2.5 on the look-ahead with Daniel Jones questionable to play. Both clubs looked awful in Week 9 with the Giants finishing with -9 net passing yards in a heartbreaking loss to the Jets and Jimmy Garoppolo losing 49 yards on six sacks in one of the worst passing performances of the season by any team.
Despite that, the Raiders reopened as long as -3.5 but things went south quickly. Las Vegas sacked its head coach and general manager and Aidan O’Connell was announced as the starter. This coincided with Jones getting in a full practice on Wednesday which moved the Raiders as short as -1.5 by mid-week.
The Giants also traded away veteran DL Leonard Williams and the Raiders took some money on Friday moving this to -2 in most places.
Jones is a big upgrade and despite Garoppolo’s play last week, O’Connell is a slight downgrade. The Las Vegas starter has two games (one start) under his belt with a 65% completion rate and a passer rating of 72. In his one start this year vs. the Bolts, he finished 27th in CPOE vs. arguably the weakest pass defense.
Now he has to take on a Giants defense that has held Buffalo, the Jets, and Washington to under 15 points each in consecutive weeks and be supported by a running back in Josh Jacobs who has just one game rushing on the year above 3.6 yards per carry (last week vs. Detroit).
Saquon Barley is coming off a 39-touch game and could feast on Sunday indoors vs. a Vegas defense that just gave up 222 rushing yards to the Lions on 43 attempts for 5.3 yards per carry. DraftKings has Barkley as the betting favorite to lead Week 9 in rushing yards at +900. The Giants might sit 31st in red-zone scoring and last in points per game, but a date with AOC and the Raiders should alleviate some of those issues.
With money coming in on the Raiders at -2, I’d be happy with the resistance at the +2. Changing coaches is always a feel-good story and the perception is that teams will play up for the next game, however, since 2003, teams have gone 15-19 SU in the following game after a mid-season firing.
The Over could likely take some sharp money heading into the weekend. It has crashed from 40 to as low as 37 but the indoor setting is nice for points, O’Connell can throw the ball, and the new coaching staff will have to be more aggressive than Josh McDaniels.
