The New England Patriots’ 10-7 straight up record in 2021 was smoke and mirrors.
It was spawned from a soft stretch of schedule that allowed the Pats to take advantage of some downtrodden and injury-depleted teams, culminating in the infamous wind game in Buffalo. A 1-3 SU finish to the schedule and playoff pounding from the Bills pulled the curtain back on Bill Belichick’s illusion.
The 2022 Patriots have a roster that’s about as drab as the head coach’s wardrobe, and Belichick is pulling double duty after losing long-time offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to Las Vegas. That leaves the maturation of QB Mac Jones in the “capable” hands of Joe Judge and Matt Patricia — neither of which specialize in offense and came crawling back to Belichick after disastrous head coaching stints.
If this team wins nine games, there’s no doubt “The Hoodie” is the greatest football mind of all time. Here’s our New England Patriots 2022 betting preview.
New England Patriots futures odds
| To win Super Bowl | +5,000 |
| To win conference | +2,500 |
| To win division | +475 |
| Season Win Total O/U | 8.5 (Over -120) |
| To Make Playoffs | Yes +140 / No -160 |
Best futures bet: Under 8.5 wins (+100)
The early lot of lookahead lines had New England as a favorite in only six games with two others at pick’em. However, spreads released later in the summer project as many as eight wins for the Pats, lining up with the season win total markets. I’m not buying it.
The Patriots’ strength of schedule ranks them out 16th based on last season’s results, but the rest of the AFC East has improved, and the Bills hate the Pats soooooo much. My QB SOS pits New England against the sixth hardest slate of rival passers in the league, including a home stretch that features Josh Allen twice, Kyler Murray, Derek Carr, and Joe Burrow.
And that’s if the start of the season doesn’t break this team before Week 5. New England plays three of its first four on the road and puts Jones up against some nasty pass rushes in that span: Miami, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, and Green Bay.
New England Patriots betting overview
What will win bets: Belichick
As unsexy as this roster looks and with the mishmash of coaching castoffs not good enough to earn a legit title, all praise must be given to the dark lord… I mean Bill Belichick.
His defense ranked out No. 4 in DVOA at Football Outsiders in 2021 and boasted an EPA allowed per play of -0.063 (also fourth). That said, those metrics were built against plenty of bullshit offenses and the D did buckle against legit attacks like Dallas, Buffalo, New Orleans, and Indianapolis.
But, when it comes to prep and strategy, New England will almost always have the edge in coaching because Belichick still prowls the sideline for the Patriots and arrives at work when everyone else is still drooling on their pillow.
What will lose bets: Lack of talent
The Patriots are really hoping that underperformers from last year suddenly shake it off and step up in 2022, because they couldn’t afford many new guys. New England lost corner J.C. Jackson and OL Ted Karras to free agency and traded away OL Shaq Mason, leaving Jones without his two starting guards from 2021.
And speaking of Jones, the Pats padded his options with injury-prone WR DeVante Parker and try to milk whatever is left in dual-threat RB James White. New England didn’t have the cash to chase any offensive weapons that would make Mac better and that lack of talent trickles down to the coaching staff, with Judge and Patricia in over their heads on the offensive side of the ball.
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New England Patriots game-by-game odds
As mentioned, lookahead lines for the Patriots vary from book to book, with some shops giving Belichick the benefit of the doubt.
New England is a point spread favorite in as many as eight games and outside of larger spreads at Green Bay (+6) and at Buffalo (+6.5), the Pats are pegged as underdogs of +3.5 or shorter in six other contests. This team is 4-2 SU and ATS at +3.5 or shorter in the two post-Brady seasons.
| 1 | @ Miami | +3 | 44.5 |
| 2 | @ Pittsburgh | -2 | 42.5 |
| 3 | vs. Baltimore | +1 | 45.5 |
| 4 | @ Green Bay | +6 | 48 |
| 5 | vs. Detroit | -7 | 45 |
| 6 | @ Cleveland | +2.5 | OTB |
| 7 | vs. Chicago | -6.5 | 42.5 |
| 8 | @ NY Jets | -3 | 42 |
| 9 | vs. Indianapolis | -1.5 | 43.5 |
| 10 | BYE | ||
| 11 | vs. NY Jets | -7 | 42.5 |
| 12 | @ Minnesota | +3.5 | 45.5 |
| 13 | vs. Buffalo | +3 | 49 |
| 14 | @ Arizona | +3 | 49 |
| 15 | @ Las Vegas | +2.5 | 48.5 |
| 16 | vs. Cincinnati | -2.5 | 42.5 |
| 17 | vs. Miami | -2.5 | 42 |
| 18 | @ Buffalo | +6.5 | 42 |
New England Patriots pro betting insights
Hitman, professional bettor (@Hitman428)
One of my toughest teams to power rate. I like Mac Jones — and obviously love Belichick as a coach — but this roster is average at best, and that should catch up to them when facing top teams.
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